Dear Rest of the United States,
I know your undies are all
in a bundle over the potential outcome
of the upcoming Iowa caucus and future-present-and-past results of
the approximately ba-zillion-and-one polls out there that show
MarBenEb FiariChrisTrumCruz leading/lagging in the race for the GOP
nomination, and speculation on whether or not BernIllary and the DNC can defeat
him/her/them in November.
Relax.
It's not like we're going to determine
the next leader of the free world.
Oh, wait, yes.
Yes, we are.
Eh. Calm down.
We got this.
But are Iowans really qualified to
predict the presidential nominees?
Pffft.
You think Iowa has any more/less
psycho-wacko-wingnut-jobs than any other state?
In a word? Puh-Leeze.
Let's look at this from the candidates
perspective, shall we? Iowa is a nice “warm-up” state,
figuratively speaking, in February. If a candidate can transition
from the heat and humidity of the Iowa State Fair in August to the
freeze and frost-bite of the Hawkeye Cauci in February and still keep
their wits about them I'd say... well, I'd say they need their
heads examined, but that's just because they're running for President
in the first place.
But in terms of campaigning,
Iowa has its share of (soft-ball, warm and fuzzy, play-it-safe)
attractions to qualify for First In The Nation status:
We're nice. Except for that one
guy who threw a tomato at Donald Trump. Tomatoes are out of season in
Iowa, so I question that man's status as a true Iowa native. I think
a real Iowan would have thrown a snowball, or an ear of dried feed
corn, or a cow pie. Maybe a comb, or a can of Aqua Net (one can only
resist such a tempting target for so long). Actually, I don't think a
real Iowan would be so rude (and I apologize for the Aqua Net
comment – sort of).
We'll go to your rally, sit and listen
quietly-ish, nod politely, smile and applaud. We'll even laugh at
your lame jokes and pretend you don't look uncomfortable wearing a
seed corn cap and rolling up the sleeves on your (recently purchased)
plaid work shirt. We'll let you shake our hands, kiss our babies and
knock on our doors. We'll even pretend to listen to what you have to
say.
Iowa is a cheap date. You don't
have to lavish us with champagne and caviar. We'll take a pork chop
on a stick or maybe a barbecue (we prefer our steaks to be Iowa,
corn-fed beef). The cost of living in Iowa is below the national
average, so you get more bang for your buck here. You can campaign in
Iowa and still have money left over to woo the other states. Please
don't be offended when we ask you to pay in advance and figure in the
gratuity for you.
Iowa is picturesque. Iowa is
just one big, friggin' photo op for candidates. Four seasons
(frequently all in one day), acres and acres of fields (don't worry,
we don't know what's growing in there either), a variety of farm
animals (and farmers) that are not camera shy, clear(ish) lakes,
along with rural, urban and suburban vistas (all accessible from one
spot)... we're a little slice of photography heaven (yes, we have
ball fields, too). Nary a single M1A1 Abrams Main Battle Tank in
sight. (Take that, Michigan! I'm surprised Mr. Dukakis didn't see to
it that your primary got moved to... never.)
Iowa is average. I say this as a
proud, life-long (so far) Iowan, you don't get much more white-bread,
normal(ish), ordinary, cross-generational, cross-cultural, everyday,
average 'Merica than Iowa. If it plays well in Iowa, it should be
successful anywhere(ish).
True, our census data points don't plot
out very far and wide, but we are not all 75-year-old retired, angry,
white, male, farmers. Some of us are 74-years-old. But by the time
the February caucuses roll around, most of us are just cold. And
angry.
And anxious for our phones to stop
ringing.
Which brings me back to why no one
should worry too much about pre-caucus poll results (with a +/-
100% margin of error, depending on which candidate paid for it)
predicting the potential caucus outcome, because...
Iowans love a good phone prank.
Iowans take their caucus responsibilities seriously. The endless and
repeated phone calls from poll-sters? Not so much.
There is a possibility that I, myself, have
completed more than one automated phone survey in a less than honest
fashion, (“Do you plan to attend the upcoming Iowa Caucus? If yes,
press 1” 1. “If the cau..” 1. “If you...” 1. “If...” 1.
“I...” 1.) only to find that while I was (mis)taking the survey I
received automated calls from five other poll-sters.
Not to worry. They'll call back.
They always do.
I'm read... 1...y.
Fo... 1...r.
Th...1...em.
1.